The SpaceX IPO and upcoming trillion-dollar IPOs by OpenAI and Anthropic have created a new game that will change how people think about the stock market.
Microsoft went public at a $61M valuation back in 1986. Public investors like you and me got most of the returns from small-cap to mega-valuation.
Now these new IPOs will create hundreds of new billionaires and $10M+-aires, but now these stocks are already valued at a premium.
VC investors, pension funds, universities, private investors, and their employees are the only big winners.
These stocks won’t go up 100X or 1000X from here. Not much fun for the rest of us.
My favorite hyped stock analyst headline about the hyped SpaceX IPO:
“This is crazy! It’s not worth $1.7 trillion. It’s only worth more like $750-$800 billion!”
Only worth $750 billion.
Even that would make it the second-largest IPO by valuation of all time. Second to Saudi Aramco.
There is clearly a lot of hype around SpaceX. The Elon factor, Elon fans, many exciting businesses, and real revenues.
These stock prices will be a voting machine for a long time before we get to the weighing machine valuations.
Who knows when all that will happen? I certainly don’t.
As Bill Ackman says, the SpaceX IPO is valued as a venture investment rather than a typical publicly traded stock.
There’s a chance this could be mega-huge, and you have to be part of it now! That’s how VCs invest.
Crazy times. What do you think?
