How long will it take to get to your next big startup goal?

Here’s my rule of thumb when estimating how long a venture or project will take to make real progress.

Double it.

For extra measure, work even harder, add more people, and run more executions.

But still, you’ll be off. If you’re lucky.

That’s what I have seen in 30+ years in the tech startup game.

Entrepreneurs are optimistic. I’m optimistic.

Major progress is just harder to make happen than we think.

I have talked to thousands of tech entrepreneurs in the last five years.

Only a few have ever told me, “We got there faster and easier than we thought we would.”

Shoot for your aggressive goal, but also plan for it to be harder and take longer.

Don’t run out of money. And don’t run out of energy.

This shouldn’t be a surprise to founders.

It’s just hard, but it’s not impossible.